A net balance of -68% of Scottish surveyors reported a decline in new buyer enquiries in August, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors' latest Residential Market Survey. That is the lowest this measure has sat in the current data series, and it did not arrive in isolation. New properties coming to market also fell, meaning both sides of the equation softened simultaneously. Fewer buyers looking, fewer sellers listing, and a market that is essentially holding its breath.
RICS, whose survey covers hundreds of chartered surveying firms across the UK, has been tracking residential sentiment for decades. A net balance of -68% is not a rounding error or seasonal noise. It means the overwhelming majority of Scottish surveyors are seeing demand fall, not rise. For context, the UK-wide picture in the same period was also subdued, but Scotland's reading came in notably weaker, according to the RICS UK Residential Market Survey published in September 2024.
The causes are not mysterious. The Bank of England's extended run of elevated interest rates has made mortgages significantly more expensive than they were two years ago, squeezing first-time buyers and those looking to move up the ladder. The ONS reported earlier this year that average UK mortgage rates on new two-year fixed deals peaked above 6%, a level not seen since 2008. In Scotland, where average house prices are lower than in London and the South East but household incomes also lag, that affordability squeeze bites hard and fast.
For SMEs in construction, fit-out, removals, conveyancing, and property management, a quieter transactions market translates directly into thinner order books. Housebuilders planning new starts watch buyer demand as a leading indicator. Joiners, plumbers, and decorators who depend on the churn of people moving and improving find that when people stop moving, discretionary renovation spend often follows. The Scottish Government's own housing statistics, published through Housing and Social Justice, show that private residential completions have already been trending down, so this latest signal adds pressure on top of pressure.
There is a counterpoint worth holding. Interest rates appear to have peaked. The Bank of England made its first cut in August 2024, and markets are pricing in further reductions through 2025. If that trajectory holds, affordability improves, confidence returns, and a market this compressed can rebound quickly. Scotland's chronic undersupply of housing has not gone away. Demand is deferred, not destroyed. The businesses that use a quiet spell to sharpen their operations, their quoting processes, their digital presence, will be positioned to move fast when buyers come back.