John Swinney travelled to Kentucky on Monday to meet bourbon industry leaders, making the case that removing American tariffs on Scotch whisky represents what he called an "essential opportunity" for both countries. The timing is pointed. With FIFA World Cup 2026 heading to North America and trade relations between the UK and US in flux following a framework agreement struck in May 2025, the window to press the case is narrow and the stakes are substantial.
Scotch whisky is Scotland's largest single food and drink export. According to the Scotch Whisky Association, the industry exported £5.05 billion worth of product in 2023, with the United States consistently the most valuable single market. American tariffs of 25 per cent, first imposed during the Trump administration's steel and aluminium dispute in 2018 and temporarily suspended before being reimposed, have cost Scottish distillers hundreds of millions of pounds in lost revenue and suppressed growth. The SWA has described their removal as the single biggest trade priority for the sector.
The Kentucky angle is not incidental. Bourbon producers in the United States faced retaliatory tariffs from the UK and EU during the same trade row, meaning the pain was mutual. Swinney's decision to meet bourbon business leaders directly is a pragmatic play: if American distillers lobby Washington for resolution, the political pressure on tariff removal comes from both sides of the negotiating table. According to the Kentucky Distillers' Association, bourbon and American whiskey represent a $9 billion economic impact in Kentucky alone, making its producers influential voices in any trade discussion touching spirits.
For Scottish SMEs, this matters well beyond the distilleries themselves. The whisky sector supports an estimated 42,000 jobs across Scotland, according to Scottish Government figures, and its supply chain reaches deep into rural and semi-urban economies: grain farmers, cooperages, packaging manufacturers, haulage firms, tourism operators, and specialist equipment suppliers. A sustained tariff regime does not just hurt the big distilling groups; it compresses margins and dampens investment all the way down the chain. Smaller independent distillers, many of which have expanded significantly over the past decade, are particularly exposed to US price sensitivity.
The broader context here is that Scottish trade advocacy increasingly has to operate on two tracks simultaneously: pushing Westminster to secure favourable terms in UK-US negotiations while making the direct case to American industry and state-level politicians. The Scottish Government does not hold reserved trade powers, but it holds relationships, and Swinney is using them. Whether Westminster's negotiating team translates that groundwork into a formal tariff removal in the ongoing UK-US trade talks remains the central uncertainty. The SWA has made clear it will continue to hold both governments to account on delivery, and Scottish businesses in the supply chain should be watching the UK-US trade framework discussions closely for any movement on spirits-specific tariff schedules.